MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 
   
   VALID 161508Z - 161645Z
   
   PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL
   MODERATE RISK BASED ON A 15% TORNADO PROBABILITY.
   
   FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WWD ACROSS
   THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS
   LA JUNTA AND MID 50S AT PUEBLO.  THOUGH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS
   CAPPED...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
   THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON.  AS THE PLAINS BOUNDARY
   LAYER HEATS...CINH WILL ERODE AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
   BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  12Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
   THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD AND UPSTREAM
   PROFILERS INDICATE WSWLY H5 WINDS TO 35 KTS.  GIVEN SELY FLOW
   BENEATH THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
   BE THREATS.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
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