MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1031 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND WEST
   CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...
   
   VALID 170331Z - 170430Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN TX
   PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL/HEAVY
   RAIN THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH
   PLAINS OF WEST TX.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
   TX PANHANDLE AT 03Z MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT.  THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW IS INTERSECTING A SECOND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY TO THE NNE OF AMA ATTM.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS
   BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
   THROUGH 05Z ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY/STRONGER
   INHIBITION ACROSS WRN OK WOULD SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   DECREASE AS THE BOW APPROACHES THE TX/WRN OK BORDER BY AROUND 05Z. 
   SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW.  
   
   30 KT SLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND THE BOW ECHO
   OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
   WITH THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH
   PLAINS OF WEST TX.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
   
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