MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0637 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/PORTIONS OF NRN-ERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488...
   
   VALID 172337Z - 180030Z
   
   DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 488.
   
   VAD WINDS FROM PA/NJ SWD ACROSS MD INDICATE 40-50 KT OF WLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR
   AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS AND ANY NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS
   THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
   FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...WITH REGIONAL
   RADARS SHOWING A SMALL BOW ECHO MOVING ESE AT 40 KT INTO CENTRAL NJ
   POSING THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ATTM.
   
   A GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS
   OF WW 488 FROM MD/ERN VA AND EWD TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 2-3
   HOURS AS THIS REGION REMAINS CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   2000-3000 J/KG/.
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE ERN WV
   PANHANDLE WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF WW
   488...IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NRN
   VA BETWEEN 00-01Z.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
   
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