MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...
   
   VALID 190456Z - 190630Z
   
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A
   THREAT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
   
   LATE EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSES COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATED THE COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
   CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...EXTENDED FROM NRN AR WWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.  LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX...NOW EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FTW
   TO ABI TO WEST OF LBB AND NWD TO NEAR DHT.  AIR MASS ACROSS WW 498
   IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
   FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH LINEAR MCS OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
   AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE EWD PROPAGATION OF
   THIS ACTIVITY AT 25 KT.  THIS SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT
   THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
   LIKELY.  LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WWD CLOSE TO THE NM/TX
   BORDER IN THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  GIVEN
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE TX PANHANDLE BEING CLOSER TO STRONGER
   FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE POSSIBLE.  IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A FORWARD PROPAGATING
   MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE FRONT/ INSTABILITY GRADIENT
   INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
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