MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NWRN MS / WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 211724Z - 211900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY ALONG COLD POOL
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  HOWEVER...WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE TYPE
   CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS SERN
   AR / NWRN MS...WHERE AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS
   INDICATED ATTM.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS AR...BUT LOW-LEVEL
   CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED BY MORNING LIT SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE
   SUPPRESSED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SERN AR...WHERE HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS ALLOWED CAP TO WEAKEN.
    STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
   2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS.
   
   DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
   FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY
   WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING ONLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AT
   BEST.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN
   BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
   LIMITED.
   
   ALTHOUGH WW IN NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  SHOULD THE STORMS
   BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   36669067 36888917 36098824 34398856 32919070 32789280
   33059424 34089413 35419107