MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1376
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...
   
   VALID 220748Z - 220815Z
   
   PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MCS
   MOVING SEWD THROUGH NW TX AND OK. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MAINLY WITH PART OF
   LINE FROM NW TX INTO SW OK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT
   DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANOTHER WW SE OF WW 506 WHICH WILL EXPIRE
   AT 08Z.
   
   STRONGEST SEWD SURGE AND PRESSURE RISES REMAIN WITH PART OF LINE
   FROM NW TX INTO SW OK. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THE SURFACE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED AHEAD OF SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN THIS
   AREA...AND OVERALL REFLECTIVITY TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWN. THE
   ATMOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY S OF THE STORMS ACROSS NW TX INTO SRN OK IS
   ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. MOREOVER...NEW STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
   DEVELOP IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LINE. THESE
   FACTORS WOULD SUGGEST REINTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE NEXT FEW HOURS
   IS UNLIKELY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS NRN TX...AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MORE
   UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AS STORMS DEVELOP SWD
   TOWARD N CNTRL TX AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY...
   THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR A RENEWED INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS
   MORNING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/22/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
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