MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 231603Z - 231730Z
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD
INTO SRN AL / WRN FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. WEAK / BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS
INDICATED FROM S CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN LA ALONG APPARENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING
AND THUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEATING / FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MORNING RAOBS AND LATEST VWP DATA INDICATE
MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH WBZ HEIGHTS FAIRLY
HIGH...HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND HIGH DEWPOINTS / LOW LCLS SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF / WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING
WINDS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN ANY MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..GOSS.. 06/23/2004
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
32598907 33298681 33008580 31868565 30208593 30188868
29068912 29049089 29639206 30719023
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