MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...
VALID 030051Z - 030215Z
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN
CO...SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX PNHDLS THIS EVENING.
LEADING TSTMS THAT MOVED OUT INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS APPEAR TO HAVE
WEAKENED SINCE 00 UTC. STRONGEST TSTMS ARE BEING MAINTAINED FARTHER
NW OVER SERN CO AND WRN KS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE COLLIDING...
PROVIDING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
PRIND THAT TSTMS WILL BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE WW THROUGH 03 UTC. THERE WAS SOME
INDICATION THAT A COLD POOL WAS GATHERING STRENGTH EARLIER AND THAT
OUTFLOWS MAY IGNITE TSTMS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE OK BORDER WITHIN THE
NWLY ALOFT. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING IS
NON-ZERO...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE
PNHDLS AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT PROBABLY WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREATS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER PLAINS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS...AND IF SIGNS OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT START TO OCCUR FARTHER
EAST...CONSIDERATIONS FOR A WW DOWNSTREAM WILL BE MADE.
..RACY.. 07/03/2004
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...
35090176 38400332 38160196 38110129 35090022
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