MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582...
   
   VALID 070103Z - 070200Z
   
   ...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM
   ACTIVITY...
   
   00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT
   MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS
   VALLEY.  CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS
   STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY
   1000J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658