MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...NWRN AND
   N-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...
   
   VALID 082243Z - 082345Z
   
   PER COORDINATION WITH TUL...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MENTIONED
   BELOW...AND LATEST OVERALL DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH
   MCS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER
   SEWD INTO AR AND EXTREME ERN OK.  THEREFORE...PRIND REMAINDER WW
   WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
   
   REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FINE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT
   SURGING WELL AHEAD OF STRONGEST CORES...THEREBY RENDERING EFFECTIVE
   INFLOW INTO REMAINING TSTMS AS ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL.  NEW
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY
   BRIEFLY FLARE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...GIVEN 4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE
   EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL
   OUTRUNNING CONVECTION THAT GENERATED IT...ANY NEW TSTMS LIKELY TO BE
   UNDERCUT BY DEEP OUTFLOW...AND WEAK AMBIENT FLOW PROFILES IN
   LOW-MIDLEVELS...PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT TO
   CONTINUE APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...
   
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