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Mesoscale Discussion 1592
MD 1592 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL EWD INTO SRN OH AND FAR NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101853Z - 102200Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
   AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS FAR NRN KY/SRN OH AND PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL/ERN IND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT. FARTHER WEST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR PIA ESEWD TO NEAR HUF...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
   TRAIN LEADING TO THE MAIN RISK BEING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES FROM
   1-2 IN/HR.
   
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
   VALLEY WHERE STRONGER /20-25 KT/ OF LOW TO MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW EXISTS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE
   OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS...ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
   ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF
   10-15 KTS/ ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN VERY SLOW
   STORM MOTIONS WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND.
   HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND CELL TRAINING WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
   RATES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. THIS IS WHERE A
   COMBINATION OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A VERY MOIST
   AIRMASS WITH MID 70S DEWPTS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN./ AND NEARLY
   STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF OVER 2 IN/HR
   RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX...
   
   39218901 39689056 40249039 40338881 40168590 39668269
   39328156 38598189 38378501 
   
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