MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 141606Z - 141830Z
   
   ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL/WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANIZED STORM
   COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BASED ON SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   SHEAR. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
   
   NARROW WARM SECTOR WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA WITH
   LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH
   AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS WRN
   PA WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN
   OH INTO NWRN PA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE POST FRONTAL
   WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NWRN PA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
   VIL/REFLECTIVITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS AND
   MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
   SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SITUATION APPEARS
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS
   POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
   HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS POSSIBLE. STORMS DEVELOPING EWD AND
   CROSSING THE WARM FRONT MAY ENCOUNTER MORE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   AND ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   39757928 40187976 40508022 40918050 41557969 41787925
   41907880 41977830 41847729 41407647 40507607 39887617
   39747700 39717841