MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 719...
   
   VALID 082102Z - 082230Z
   
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WW AREA
   BENEATH UPPER LOW...WITHIN SURFACE CONFLUENT ZONES.  LINE OF
   CONVECTION NOW E OF RED RIVER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD OUT OF
   WW...THUS ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED INTO
   NWRN MN. 
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG
   OVER SERN ND AND NWRN MN.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG VORTICITY
   WITHIN THE COLUMN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE BRIEF
   TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/08/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...
   
   46149625 46769839 47119906 48279909 49009926 49009501
   46049398