MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0914 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...AND NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726...
   
   VALID 100214Z - 100315Z
   
   WW 726 CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI FOR THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. ISOLATED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS SOUTH
   OF WW AREA ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH.
   
   AT 0155Z...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS EXTEND FROM
   N-CENTRAL LOWER MI SWD INTO NRN IND ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER WI. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WAS A
   SUPERCELL ACROSS SERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI AND
   ADDITION LONG-LIVED CELL MOVING ACROSS CALHOUN COUNTY IN SRN LOWER
   MI. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 25KTS.
   HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL REDUCE CAPE DURING NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OF
   STORMS. OBSERVED 00Z MUCAPE AT DTX WAS AROUND 700 J/KG...BUT WITH
   SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. CELLS MAY MAINTAIN
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS FOR NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE LESSENING
   INSTABILITY REDUCES UPDRAFT INTENSITY LATER TONIGHT.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM MI/IND BORDER
   SWWD TO 40NW LAF...MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KT. ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG CORES NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS
   CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND INTO FAR NWRN OH. ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR ERN LOWER MI OR ACROSS NRN IND/NWRN
   OH.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...
   
   40828748 42108667 45698568 45708297 42118413 40838494