MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102341Z - 110045Z
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NM...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN NM...ALONG SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE PARTLY INFLUENCED BY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS ERN CO. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THIS
REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED
MULTICELL UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SSEWD. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..DARROW.. 08/10/2004
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
34160490 35810350 35720274 34710285 33430301 33070452
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