MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 111149Z - 111345Z
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF SERN OK INTO NERN TX
   THIS MORNING AS MCS MOVES ESEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A
   FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN
   POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN AR.
   
   A WELL ORGANIZED MCS WITH STRONG MESOLOW AND OUTFLOW SURGE WAS
   CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY THIS MORNING.
   MEANWHILE...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD INTO MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR. WHILE MCS APPEARS TO BE
   OUTRUNNING STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING
   UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MO/MID MS VALLEYS...DEGREE OF MESOSCALE
   ORGANIZATION TO THE MCS...AND MOIST WEAKLY CAPPED UPSTREAM
   AIRMASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
   ACROSS AT LEAST SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE NOW SURGING ACROSS SCNTRL OK.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL
   STORMS INCREASING ACROSS NRN AR. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WAS IN
   PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT...MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL MAY NOT SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A
   WATCH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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