MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN PA/NJ SWWD INTO ERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 181724Z - 181900Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST
   INTENSE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR
   FROM PARTS OF ERN MD/DE SWWD INTO ERN VA WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/.
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH /EXTENDING FROM E OF
   ABE TO NEAR CHO/...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY
   AXIS.
   
   RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON REGIONAL VWPS SUGGESTS THAT
   STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER...
   GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
   
   36657883 37807869 39377710 40757543 41227471 41087385
   40537364 39237425 37187544 36757621 36557669