MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN OH / FAR WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 182201Z - 182330Z
   
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF OH AND
   INTO FAR WRN PA.  THREAT FOR MARGINAL WIND / HAIL SHOULD DECREASE
   AFTER SUNSET...AND THUS WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN OH WHERE
   MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS
   INDICATED.  LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
   FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD
   PERSIST.  HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAKER INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM
   INTO WRN PA AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD
   WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
   
   UNTIL THEN...MODERATE / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED / OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   42148028 41897937 40898001 39788169 38548223 38668377
   39438398 40408329 41868149