MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0422 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN CO...ERN NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS AREA OF
   TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 212122Z - 212315Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS FROM ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SWRN TX. WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   AT 21Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG THE
   CO FRONT RANGE FROM 20N COS SWD TO NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. OTHER
   CELLS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM SWD TO 50SE GDP.
   STORM MOTIONS WERE GENERALLY SE AT 10-15 KT.
   
   SFC TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S ACROSS ERN NM AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS SERN CO ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS CO /AROUND
   30KT/...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR. A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SUGGEST
   LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED LESS
   ORGANIZATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NM/SWRN TX...HOWEVER...CAPE IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR PULSE SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV
   IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL NM MAY ENHANCE MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND STORM
   COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/21/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36840513 38360557 39210548 39660493 39720380 39400316
   38050300 36520302 33910306 32590313 31780305 31190302
   31010354 31080417 31520449 32620486 34330508