MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2120
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 262050Z - 262245Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY FROM SCNTRL INTO ERN MO
   NEXT FEW HOURS WILL POSE A THREAT OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
   WINDS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   
   ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SRN MO
   CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITUATED
   OVER SRN AND ERN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RECENTLY...ISOLD CELLS HAVE
   DEVELOPED QUICKLY TO THE WEST OF STL. REMAINS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ALIGNED ALONG THE MS RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
   TSTM INITIATION. EXTREME MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND
   WEAK DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST INTENSE/VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
   WITH RELATIVELY POOR ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BACKED AND
   STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE OUTFLOW...AND WITHIN HCRS...COULD
   RESULT IN LOCALLY ENHANCED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE
   OF CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS...AN ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE REMNANT BOUNDARY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
   
   37398991 37369098 37759157 38259165 39279148 39639071
   38839022 38158989 37658960