MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 291944Z - 292145Z
   
   TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM THE FAR ERN
   DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/FAR WRN MN CONTINUES TO RECOVER IN
   WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU FIELD
   CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INVOF SFC WIND
   SHIFT/WEAK COLD FRONT...AS FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION OVERSPREADS
   ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MANITOBA/ND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
   
   19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH IN PLACE WITH
   MLCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG IN AXIS ALONG/EAST OF DVL-JMS-ABR CORRIDOR.
   AIDED BY MODERATE W/NW WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-16C
   TO -18C/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
   HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/29/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48919925 48969825 48859584 48159513 45969489 44499496
   43829584 43789799 43819883 45319891 47079887