MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NW AL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 122041Z - 122245Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL... AND ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SLOWLY
   TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID ATLANTIC
   SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO
   CONSOLIDATION INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. 
   THIS...IN CONJUCTION WITH WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR
   PROFILES...CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
   IN STRONGEST CELLS. 
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BEYOND PEAK
   HEATING...AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
   WIDESPREAD...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE... AND LARGE
   HAIL THREAT MAY DIMINISH BY AROUND 13/00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 09/12/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
   
   35748927 36478872 36558770 36098675 35408705 34828766
   34078817 33498884 33419011 33819081 34708969