MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED......WRN SC/WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 831...
   
   VALID 170551Z - 170715Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR ERN TN. VAD
   WIND PROFILES EAST OF THE CENTER CURRENTLY SHOW STRONGLY VEERED
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINLY ACROSS WRN SC AND WRN NC WHERE RAINBANDS ARE
   ONGOING. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KT
   AND THIS ALONG WITH THE VEERING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   MINI-SUPERCELLS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NEWD INTO LOWER INSTABILITY AND
   THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING MLCAPE VALUES AS SFC TEMPS FALL WILL
   LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MINI-SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/17/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   33528218 35318221 35818215 36148169 36168108 35688076
   34538076 33508108