MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 181914Z - 182045Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW
   HOURS OVER WRN AZ. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER WRN AZ AND
   SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING AND AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS AIDING
   INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE
   MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY. WEAK CAP AND DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING OF THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE
   EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE W
   COAST. GREATER THREAT FOR HAIL APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SWRN PART OF
   AZ WHERE CAPE IS STRONGER. GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE
   OVER THE NWRN PORTION WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
   SPREADS ARE HIGHER.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/18/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   34571177 32091176 32091322 32891468 35911401 36931302
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