MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2255
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN/NWRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 232026Z - 232230Z
   
   ...ISOLD TSTM WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS ACROSS MN
   ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS NWRN WI...
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF
   ABERDEEN...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO FAR/30 W INL. AN AXIS OF
   SFC INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING
   SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
   IN PLACE WITH LATEST WOODLAKE MN PROFILER OBSERVING 50-60 KT AT 1KM
   WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 35-40 KT
   RANGE...ALTHOUGH EARLIER A 56 KT GUST OCCURRED AT ANE ON THE N SIDE
   OF THE TWIN CITIES. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF LOW
   TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3
   HOURS...AND WILL HAVE STRONG/GUSTY TSTM WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY WITH
   SOME WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 09/23/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...FGF...
   
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