MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...MD...NJ...DE...SE PA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 846...847...
VALID 282036Z - 282230Z
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AS THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
RAINBANDS WITH SEVERAL ROTATING STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SERN PA AND MD. THE RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF JEANNE'S
CIRCULATION. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH A
50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF NC AND VA IS CREATING
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. VAD WIND PROFILES NEAR PHILADELPHIA SHOW 20
TO 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A
TORNADO THREAT CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BANDS ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS INSTABILITY AND
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 750 J/KG IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT ISOLATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
..BROYLES.. 09/28/2004
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
38007594 38367701 39007749 39627710 40617619 41237542
40957422 40417360 39657407 38877483
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