MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 050757Z - 050900Z
   
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH AT
   LEAST 10/11Z...BUT THREAT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WILL MONITOR AREA
   FOR POSSIBLE WW...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
   
   A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF ABQ EWD INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
   60S...AND THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. VAD WIND PROFILER NEAR
   CVS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WHILE ABQ VAD SHOWS WINDS
   VEERING FROM SELY TO WLY IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM. THESE WIND PROFILES
   INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ROTATE. INTENSE STORM 40 NNE
   4CR IS MOVING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT
   MOVES ALONG THE E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO
   LIKELY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN DEEPER ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE STORM
   ROTATION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE
   HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZED...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM.
   
   ..IMY.. 10/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
   
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