MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 864...
   
   VALID 191208Z - 191415Z
   
   WW 864 CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS
   SUGGEST CURRENT WATCH WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED PAST 13Z. 
   
   AT 1201Z...SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS E-W FROM N-CENTRAL MS TO
   FAR SERN TN. BACKBUILDING ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON WRN END OF
   THE LINE NEAR TUP...ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45KT SWLY 1KM FLOW AND WARM
   ADVECTION PER VAD WIND PROFILE AT COLUMBUS AFB IN NERN MS.
   ADDITIONALLY...REGION IS LOCATED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM
   OF SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND CONTINUED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL
   ADDITIONAL HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED. HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
   1.75" AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO WRN FLANK OF THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2"/HR ACROSS NERN MS AND
   NRN AL THROUGH LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MINIMAL COLD POOL
   STRENGTH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LESSENING THREAT OF
   SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN ROBUST
   SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING UPWIND OF CURRENT E-W LINE BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   34468898 34838647 35028546 34068545 33958747 33808896