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Mesoscale Discussion 2342
MD 2342 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 192010Z - 192245Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING ACROSS WRN TN...IN NARROW WEDGE OF
   FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING LOCATED BETWEEN SFC COLD
   FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM.  THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE
   FOR A FEW HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/MID TN TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
   FROM MEM...DYR...25 NNW HSV.  CELLS INTERACTING WITH BOUNDARY MAY
   TIGHTEN ROTATION AND CARRY SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.  WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY SMALL TIME/SPACE SCALE OF
   AFFECTED AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   AR...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG LINE FROM 20 ENE TCL...TUP...MKL. 
   BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN TN WHILE FRONT MOVES SEWD
   10-15 KT OVER REMAINDER NERN AND EXTREME SWRN TN.  SFC BASED
   BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY BECAUSE OF STRENGTH/DEPTH OF COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS.
   AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND BOUNDARY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED WITH LOW
   70S F SFC DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BASED
   ON RUC SOUNDINGS.  LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND E OF SFC COLD
   FRONT...LIMITING WARM SECTOR SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WEAK/BACKED FLOW
   ALONG AND JUST E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTS IN 150-250 J/KG SRH IN
   0-1 KM LAYER.  BLEND OF MEM/BNA VWP AND OKO PROFILER WINDS SUGGEST
   MIDLEVEL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL.  THEREFORE EXPECT
   GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG AND WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF BOUNDARY
   BEFORE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...
   
   35568980 36138921 36468863 36398838 36208814 35918807
   35478819 35068835 35008870 35058983 
   
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