MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW...CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 101957Z - 102200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE/STRENGTHEN NEXT FEW HOURS...AND TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   CLOSED LOW IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH
   WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER PROGRESSING EAST OF
   THE PANHANDLE REGION...ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.  AS THIS
   MOTION CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW... WHICH HAS
   DEVELOPED OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WILL
   TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...LIKELY INTO AREAS NORTH OF
   OKLAHOMA CITY BY 11/00Z.
   
   RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED ZONE OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/JUST EAST OF SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   FOCUS FOR INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS UNDERWAY
   ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH TONGUE OF MID/UPPER 50S DEW POINTS
   NOW EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF 40 KT
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM  NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
   INTO ENID/STILLWATER AREAS.
   
   AS STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAKENS INHIBITION
   NEXT FEW HOURS...MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
   500 K/KG.  DESPITE LOW VALUES OF CAPE... STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZATION/ INTENSITY OF STORMS...WITH COLD
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL WHICH MAY APPROACH OR
   EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
   STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/10/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
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