MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 200526Z - 200730Z
   
   A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIKELY AS CELLS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
   TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   IS HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
   INLAND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON. THE STORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
   DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN
   MEXICO. THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS MOVING ACROSS
   SCNTRL TX AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SFC PRESSURE FALLS. VAD WIND
   PROFILES IN THE HOUSTON AREA SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TO
   MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STORMS SHOULD
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THE CELLS TRACK NEWD. THIS SHOULD
   KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ROTATING
   CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST CLOSE TO THE
   BOUNDARY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/20/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28219685 28439710 28579719 29059700 29479666 29649629
   29829608 30069540 30119483 30019465 29719449 29349457
   28929486 28419582