MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0846 AM CST THU NOV 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN VA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NERN
   NC...EXTREME SRN DE...MD EASTERN SHORE AREA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 251446Z - 251645Z
   
   LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- EVIDENT AT 1440Z FROM RIC AREA SWWD
   TO ABOUT 30 NW RDU -- SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ALONG VA-NC BORDER AND
   ACROSS PORTIONS SERN/TIDEWATER VA THROUGH 17Z. OCCASIONAL
   STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY
   HAS PRODUCED 30-40 KT GUSTS AT TDF DURING PAST HOUR...AND WILL BE
   MOVING INTO AIR MASS ACROSS SERN VA THAT IS DESTABILIZING WITH CLOUD
   BREAKS AND INSOLATION. ANOTHER DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
   S-CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA WILL MOVE ENEWD OVER MD EASTERN SHORE
   COUNTIES AND PERHAPS SRN DE...ALSO WITH A FEW GUSTS APCHG 50 KT
   POSSIBLE.
   
   MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z GSO RAOB -- LAUNCHED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WRN
   LINE -- AND TO RUC SOUNDINGS OVER SERN VA...SUGGEST UP TO 500 J/KG
   MLCAPE POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW-MID 70S SFC TEMPS AND LOW 60S F DEW
   POINTS.  STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT IN 12Z VWP AND LATEST
   RAOB DATA...ALONG WITH 90-105 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER. 
   VERY STRONG FLOW IS EVIDENT NOT FAR OFF SFC -- I.E. 55-60 KT AT 700
   MB...AND SOME MOMENTUM MAY BE TRANSFERRED DOWNWARD TO SFC BY THIS
   CONVECTION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...
   
   36127831 36817797 37527737 38087651 38557547 38597501
   38347483 37257571 36777587 36537644 36157793