MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 AM CST THU NOV 25 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NY...SRN VT...MA...CT...RI...SRN
   NH...EXTREME SWRN MAINE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 907...
   
   VALID 251513Z - 251715Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 907 ALONG/AHEAD OF MAIN CONNECTIVE LINE.  NEW WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED E OF 907 ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NEW ENGLAND.  NARROW
   BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- APCHG GFL/ALB/POU AND NYC AREAS AS OF
   15Z...IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS IN THOSE
   LOCALES AND TO MOVE EWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW THROUGH AROUND 17Z.  AT
   PRESENT PACE...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WELL BEFORE IT
   EXPIRES -- BEGINNING APPROXIMATELY 1630Z OVER NWRN CT...WRN MA AND
   VT.
   
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
   COMBINATION OF WAA AND WEAK SFC HEATING.  ASSOCIATED SBCAPES 250-500
   J/KG ARE MARGINAL BUT NONETHELESS WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT TO
   ALREADY STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED CG LIGHTNING
   PRODUCTION...AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC IN DOWNDRAFTS.  VERY
   INTENSE KINEMATIC FIELDS THROUGH DEEP LAYER ARE EVIDENT AMIDST
   NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
   WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...DESPITE LACK OF STRONGER
   SFC HEATING.  BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS..SUCH AS THAT CROSSING ULSTER
   COUNTY NY AT 16Z AND MOVING TOWARD SWRN MA/NWRN CT...WILL LOCALLY
   MAXIMIZE WIND SPEEDS AND DAMAGE THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/25/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...GYX...BTV...
   
   40507476 43157466 43127290 40507307 
   
   43197319 43577194 43607073 43437033 42627073 41957062
   41197147 40667301 43077290