MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E TX/WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 270703Z - 270900Z
   
   A HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CELLS TRACK NEWD
   ACROSS ERN TX AND WRN LA. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST
   MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS OF SE TX AND SW LA.  A WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED SHORTLY.
   
   STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING TO THE EAST OF A MOIST
   AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS EAST TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S
   F. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING DUE TO STRONG LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET. IN ADDITION...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE EXIT REGION OF AN
   APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET IS HELPING THE STORMS TO INTENSIFY. VAD
   PROFILES IN SOUTHWEST LA SHOW VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONG
   SPEED SHEAR BELOW 2 KM. THIS SUGGESTS A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL
   EXIST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. NWD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
   AREAS...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND
   FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
   APPROACHES...REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS
   WITH THE STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL AND SRN LA DURING
   THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   29689364 29629400 30299479 31519478 32249432 32319318
   31599235 30739186 29919192 29719282