MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NW OK...SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL
   KS
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 
   
   VALID 050111Z - 050615Z
   
   PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES NEWD THROUGH NW OK INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. FREEZING RAIN
   RATES FROM .05 TO .1 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. LOCALLY HIGHER
   RATES FROM .15 TO .2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR...GENERALLY AOB 1000 M DEEP...REMAINS
   OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/S KS AND SWD INTO OK AND NW TX WITH THE FREEZING
   LINE FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH NW OK INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.
   ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER...PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
   30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL WARM
   NOSE...AND THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
   PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS. A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE HEAVIER
   PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS KS AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MIGRATES
   TOWARD THE MS VALLEY.
   
   THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER KS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SWD MOVING
   ARCTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SW THROUGH NE KS. THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH W TX. THE
   PERSISTENT STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   INTERACTING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
   COMBINE TO ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND PRECIPITATION RATES/COVERAGE
   FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES NEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL KS. A MIX WITH
   OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
   PANHANDLES THROUGH SW AND CNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/05/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
   SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
   06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
   USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...
   
   37889565 36469882 35680182 36090277 36960245 38140033
   38979790 39159610