MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CST THU JAN 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY...NRN VT...NH...ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 061731Z - 062300Z
   
   MDT TO OCNL HVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
   AND PARTS OF NERN NY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THE BAND OF
   HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY NEWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION...A
   FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BAND COULD EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL
   RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR UP TO 3 HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
   APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE THE HEAVIER
   SNOW BAND. HOWEVER...WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS INFILTRATING PARTS OF
   ERN NY AND SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
   AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION DEPARTS SWRN SECTIONS OF THIS MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION AREA...SEE UPCOMING MCD 0039 FOR MORE INFO ON MIXED
   WINTER PRECIPITATION.
   
   PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE OF MODEST INTENSITY WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE
   ERN GREAT LAKES TO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER
   JET COUPLING MOVING FROM WRN NEW YORK TO NRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE ZONE OF STRONG
   LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP SURFACE-BASED COLD
   DOME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
   WITH BUF AND PIT MORNING RAOBS INDICATING PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
   MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT WILL INITIALLY FAVOR SNOW
   CRYSTAL GROWTH THROUGH VAPOR DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION WITH
   HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING IN A NW-SE ARC FROM NERN NY ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
   VT TO NH. THIS BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL SHOULD TRANSITION ENEWD
   ACROSS NH AND MAINE THROUGH EVENING AS STRONGEST FORCING DEVELOPS
   ENEWD. GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONGEST UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION WAS BEING INDICATED IN ETA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   ACROSS ERN NY AND MUCH OF VT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MIX OF SNOW AND
   SLEET...OR EVEN A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET...ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
   BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THESE AREAS DURING THE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/06/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
   SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
   06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
   USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...
   
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   45856779 45026755 44646744