MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 AM CST SUN JAN 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM INTO THE OK AND NRN TX PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 301252Z - 301845Z
   
   SNOW RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   MORNING ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
   ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES
   APPROACHING 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   MORE WIDESPREAD EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA INTO THE WRN OK AND NWRN TX
   PNHDLS.
   
   CLOSED...MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NWRN NM IS FORECAST TO
   WEAKEN TODAY AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
   REGIME OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
   CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ABQ EWD ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   RANGE INTO THE TX PNHDL WHERE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT /OWING TO
   COUPLING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA AND OROGRAPHIC
   ASCENT/ IS OCCURRING. 
   
   SNOW LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LVS TO DHT AS OF 12Z MAY TEND TO
   DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME AS THE STRONG ASCENT AND MELTING EFFECTS COOL
   VERTICAL COLUMN. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING
   OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NERN NM HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST
   COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7.5
   C/KM OBSERVED IN THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER SNOW
   BURSTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING AND
   SATURATION OF THAT PORTION OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FAVORING
   DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH.
   
   THROUGH 18Z...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
   CRISTOS...POSSIBLY EWD ALONG THE RATON MESA WHERE HOURLY SNOW RATES
   COULD APPROACH 1-2 INCHES/HOUR. EXPECT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
   HEAVY SNOW TO ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD EWD INTO THE
   NRN TX AND OK PNHDLS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
   SYSTEM SLOWLY SPREADS EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/30/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
   SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
   06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
   RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
   USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   35750593 37020585 38500554 38620460 37870381 37250265
   37040144 35990142 35480225 35290442