MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN TN...WRN NC..NRN GA...NE AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 24...
   
   VALID 211652Z - 211845Z
   
   AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE-SCALE BOW
   ECHO CONTINUES EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. HOWEVER...THE
   THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN AS THE LINE OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS AND A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TO ESE
   FROM SW TN TO NW GA. THE BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD AT ABOUT 55 KT JUST
   AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL JET OF 70 KT PUNCHING EWD THROUGH TN. SOUTH OF
   THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE SRN PART OF THE BOW ECHO...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. AS THE LINE
   OUTRUNS THE SOURCE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...SOME
   WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...A MINIMAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   SHOULD CONTINUES DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STRONG
   VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT. ANY WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS
   THE LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34408678 35228486 35938416 36378351 36158281 35408256
   34548354 33828534 33848654