MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/WRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...
   
   VALID 302118Z - 302315Z
   
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WW 105 OVER THE
   NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO POSSIBLE AS
   SUPERCELLS TRACK NEWD INTO CNTRL AND NRN IL.
   
   OVER IL AND WRN IND...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS SBCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50
   KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
   MID-LEVEL JET AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE NOSE OF THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
   INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
   TRACK NEWD WITH AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUPERCELL APPROACHING THE I-39
   CORRIDOR BETWEEN BLOOMINGTON AND ROCKFORD. THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
   SUPERCELL AND OTHER SUPERCELLS SHOULD AFFECT THE CHICAGO AREA BY 00Z
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES (POSSIBLY STRONG)...VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND WIND DAMAGE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...
   
   39138916 40668892 41568922 42088977 42538954 42578882
   42468802 42208748 41428707 40538695 39648715 38918764
   38738830