MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 252035Z - 252230Z
   
   ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER WRN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY
   BECOME SFC BASED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 
   
   MID LEVEL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER ERN NEB WILL MOVE INTO
   WRN AND CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OMA VWP AND FAIRBURY
   PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
   30 KTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AIRMASS
   DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/CENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG AS SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   NOTED ON DSM RADAR CONTINUES TO LIFTS NWD NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
   AND WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL BE
   MARGINAL.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE
   WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...IF
   SCT TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING W-E ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY THEN WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.90
   INCHES...THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
   
   42959352 42949486 42489571 42099594 41849591 41489565
   41249488 41199388 41209318 41379248 41859189 42279190
   42989246