MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1468
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...EXTREME
   SWRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 252240Z - 260015Z
   
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS EXTREME ERN
   WY -- SPECIFICALLY GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES...ARE EXPECTED TO
   MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WHILE MOVING INTO
   ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN SD.  OTHER ACTIVITY
   OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY WY ALSO MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THOSE AREAS.  WW WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY CYCLONE OVER SERN MT BETWEEN
   SHR-BIL...WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS NERN TIP OF WY AND NRN-MOST BLACK
   HILLS. DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM DEVILS TOWER AREA SWD WITHIN 10-20
   NM OF ERN WY BORDER...JUST E OF CYS AND INTO WRN WELD COUNTY CO. 
   SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SEWD FROM MT LOW ACROSS
   JOHNSON AND CONVERSE COUNTIES WY...INTERSECTING DRYLINE JUST SW
   TOR...THEN SEWD TOWARD AKO.  EXPECT PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
   REMAIN...
   1. E OF DRYLINE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT TO
   LOW 60S F OVER NEB PANHANDLE...AND
   2. NE OF SFC TROUGH...WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MOST STRONGLY BACKED
   AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED.
   
   ALTHOUGH PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATES SOME FLOW WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM
   AGL LAYER...WINDS NE OF TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   PERMIT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL MODE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...ENHANCING LARGE HAIL THREAT.  RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED OVER
   CENTRAL/NRN NEB PANHANDLE SHOW UP TO ABOUT 2100 J/KG MLCAPE AND
   30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...WITH ABOUT 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS. 
   WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SHOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL AS
   WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/25/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   45030449 45020412 44890376 44200302 42820238 41380219
   41040252 40970286 40970416 41580473 42820486 43840556
   44560684 44840724