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Mesoscale Discussion 2014
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SRN
   LM...SERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 729...
   
   VALID 181816Z - 181945Z
   
   MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 25-30 KT ACROSS NERN IL
   AND SRN LM.  MEANWHILE TSTMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS
   AREA BETWEEN RFD-VYS...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA...ATOP COLD POOL FROM
   MCS.  LATTER ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS BUT IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT BECAUSE OF LIMITED
   SFC-BASED BUOYANCY.  
   
   IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND EXTEND SWD INTO
   MORE OF WARM SECTOR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 20Z
   EXPIRATION.  IN ANY EVENT...AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN
   LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH INCREASING
   HEATING AND NWD LIFT OF WARM FRONT AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE
   POTENTIAL E OF WW. 729.  MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG AND 35-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEARS ARE EVIDENT ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER NRN
   INDIANA...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL OF WEAKENING TRENDS
   AND REINVIGORATION OF SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER E.
   
   BACK W...CONVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY REINFORCED/RELOCATED FRONTAL
   ZONE FARTHER SWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A PRIMARY
   FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT/MOTION.  ANOTHER MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION REGARDING THAT LATER SCENARIO...EXTENDING WWD INTO
   IA...WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER SOME MORE
   EXAMINATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/18/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
   
   40288677 40308757 40478855 41118919 41658919 41768880
   41668725 41918640 42238577 42428472 41548478 40558567 
   
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