MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/NW PA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 735...
   
   VALID 192312Z - 200045Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 735 CONTINUES FOR WRN NY/NW PA UNTIL
   02Z. THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES CONTINUES...AS WELL AS LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   A SLIVER OF UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS PRIMARILY INVOF LAKE ERIE/LAKE
   ONTARIO LAKE SHORE...WITH MODIFIED 18Z BUF RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF
   750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS FAR WRN NY/FAR NW PA. IN SPITE OF THE
   MARGINAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 735...AMBIENT
   FLOW FIELDS NEVERTHELESS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS/UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN
   200 MS/S2 -- OWING TO BACKED S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND PROXIMITY
   OF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 08/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
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