MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 051821Z - 052045Z
   
   TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A BAND FROM NRN
   MO/SRN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
   COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. A WATCH IS
   NOT IMMINENT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
   A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD NWRN MO FROM NERN KS ENHANCES DEEP
   LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM IRK TO GBG TO
   MDW. WHILE THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
   ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
   MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   LATEST DVN SOUNDING AT 18Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH INCREASING SINCE 12Z.
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
   PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   THROUGH 21Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   41708759 41098829 40399084 40059195 40179307 41189256
   41869179 42239133 42649052 42878970 43058904 42828761
   42488689