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Mesoscale Discussion 2431
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL/SRN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH...NWRN
   KY...NWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 151932Z - 152100Z
   
   THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS THE OH
   VLY REGION FROM SRN IL/NWRN TN EWD INTO CNTRL/SRN IND... WCNTRL/SWRN
   OH AND NWRN KY.  TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WWS
   865/866 BY 21Z.
   
   A 999 MB LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF KSTL AT 19Z.  THE WARM FRONT HAS
   JUMPED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND IS MOVING INTO WCNTRL OH
   ATTM.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/S OF
   THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG NOSING NWD INTO THE OH/TN
   VLYS.  PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VLY. 
   
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED FROM SRN IL INTO WRN TN AS IT
   MOVED INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   NOTED. OVERLAY OF 18Z RAOB DATA AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
   STRONGEST CROSS-OVER BETWEEN SLY H85 WINDS AND THE WSWLY H5 WINDS
   EXISTS ACROSS SRN IND/NWRN KY/SWRN OH AT MID-AFTN.  LATEST VWP FROM
   PAH/EVANSVILLE/WILMINGTON OHIO SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   PROFILES /0-1KM SHEAR 35+ KTS/ AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS
   WITHIN SERN QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW/PRESSURE FALL AXIS.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AND MIXED MODES OF LINE SEGMENTS/ DISCRETE CELLS WILL
   REMAIN LIKELY DOWNSTREAM INTO SRN IND...NWRN KY...WRN TN AND
   SWRN/WCNTRL OH WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   38558996 40028708 40408473 40348310 39938280 39028337
   37958471 35918786 35958934 37258918 
   
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