MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY INTO SRN/CNTRL IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 021730Z - 021900Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN IND
   AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.  A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   AS OF 1720Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONGLY-FORCED
   CONVECTIVE LINE FROM E-CNTRL IL INTO WRN TN WITH A GENERAL EWD
   MOTION OF 20-25 KTS.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
   THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ADVECTION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE
   MS RIVER SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   BACKING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH APPROACHING OF THIS LOW
   IS RESULTING IN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGELY A
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  HOWEVER...AN AXIS MODESTLY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ ACROSS
   INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
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