MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/VT/NH/WRN MA/CT/ERN PA/NJ/DE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS 
   
   VALID 150615Z - 151215Z
   
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
   OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
   THE HEAVIEST BANDS. MIXED PCPN IN THE FORM OF SLEET/FZRA MAY OCCUR
   EAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING SOUTH OF CAPE
   COD...CURRENTLY DOWN TO 982MB. MEANWHILE STRONG NW WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH INTENSE UPPER TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.
   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORFOLK VA TO
   BURLINGTON VT. DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS IS MOVING INTO SERN
   NY/NRN NJ WHICH HAS DISRUPTED ORIGINAL LONG BAND OF HEAVY SNOW.
   
   LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DUE
   TO AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATIONS WITHIN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF DEPARTING
   UPPER JET AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION. IN
   ADDITION...FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH A DEEP
   LAYER...SUPPORTING BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AN EXAMINATION
   OF LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL
   CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP FROM THE ERN
   ADIRONDACKS SWD INTO ERN PA/DE. OTHER HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
   
   SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST
   BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON
   THE ERN EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
   TYPES...RANGING FROM RAIN NEAR THE COASTS TO A MIX OF SLEET/FZRA
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ME.
   FZRA IS NOW OCCURRING FROM CON/BAF/ISP BECAUSE OF WARM AIR LOCATED
   AROUND 850MB WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ERODED AWAY BY APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH. PTYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST PCPN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO
   SLEET/SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE
   TOWARD EARLY MORNING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 01/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...
   
   38497574 41347544 44907388 45037207 45017110 40957251
   40227310 38457496