MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX....WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 162324Z - 170130Z
   
   THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST THIS EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY IF
   STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
   STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   
   A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   SATELLITE IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO. PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS MID
   LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SHORT-TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH ABOUT 100KT OF FLOW AT 6KM NOTED ON LDB
   PROFILER AND EWX VWP. THIS VERY FAST SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIES ATOP A
   SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SURGING ESEWD FROM NEAR CLL TO
   LRD. AIR MASS EAST OF THIS LINE OF FORCING WAS WARM AND MOIST BUT
   ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DUE TO MARGINAL LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD
   OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS LAVACA... FAYETTE...AND COLORADO
   COUNTIES. NEW ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FRONT IN DEWITT
   AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. GIVEN INTENSE MID LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE TO EXHIBIT
   INCREASING ORGANIZATION... DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...SOME LINE SEGMENTS
   COULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IF STORM UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO
   INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE GULF THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   27359694 26459780 27619847 30289648 31809578 32549410
   30049324 28009610