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Mesoscale Discussion 90
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA/WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 301528Z - 301730Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AL SHOULD
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZES.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY AROUND MIDDAY.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RICHER GULF MOISTURE STILL S OF THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST REGION...WHILE MORNING RAOBS SHOW FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
   INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.  ABOVE THE CAPPED LAYER HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS
   REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED AS
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
   INTO THE SERN CONUS.
   
   COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
   BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD/VIGOROUS CONVECTION. 
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WLY
   WINDS -- AND THUS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES...INCREASING FLOW
   AT MID LEVELS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION.  
   
   EXPECT STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN
   AL TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR INCREASES.  LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
   GENERAL LACK OF VEERING IN THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THAT MAIN
   THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL ACROSS THIS AREA.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...WITH WW ISSUANCE LIKELY REQUIRED BY MIDDAY.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31098824 31988731 32548601 32948458 31818377 31078404
   29808528 30298610 30208802 30208838 
   
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Page last modified: January 30, 2006
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