MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL MI
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 160440Z - 160945Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MIX OF FREEZING
   RAIN/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OVER CENTRAL
   MI THROUGH 10Z...ALONG AND ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE I-96
   CORRIDOR.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS TO NEAR FLINT. NEAR SURFACE CAA
   SUPPORTED BY WEAK PRESSURE RISES WILL OFFSET STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
   AND PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TO ALLOW THIS AXIS TO REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STRONG WAA WILL RESULT
   IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MOVING SLOWLY NWD INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI
   THUS A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND LESS THAN
   50 MILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE. MEANWHILE...THE
   STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRANSLATE FROM
   ECENTRAL WI INTO NRN LOWER MI THROUGH 10Z. SEVERAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOWBANDS WILL RESULT IN THIS AREA WITH HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1
   INCH FOR A 1-3 HR PERIOD.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
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